Gemini preparing to launch prediction market contracts: Bloomberg
Quick Take
- Gemini is planning to offer prediction market contracts, Bloomberg reported.
- In May, the exchange filed to launch a derivatives exchange, which may be used for prediction markets trading.
Gemini, the crypto exchange founded by the Winklevoss twins, is planning to launch prediction market contracts, Bloomberg reported Tuesday.
Citing anonymous sources familiar with the plans, the report said Gemini discussed launching the products as soon as possible.
In May, Gemini filed an application to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to operate a designated contract market, the regulatory status required for a derivatives exchange. This new platform, currently under review, could potentially be the exchange for prediction contracts, according to Bloomberg.
The crypto exchange reportedly teased this new venture in a filing ahead of its September initial public offering, stating that it aims to launch event contracts for "economic, financial, political and sports forecasts."
The Block has reached out to Gemini for comment.
Growing demand
Prediction markets have become an emerging sector experiencing rapid volume growth, driven by platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket that appeal to both traditional and crypto traders.
The Block's data shows that Kalshi and Polymarket both saw their monthly volume soar to their all-time highs in October. The CFTC-regulated Kalshi was the market leader with $4.4 billion, while Polymarket, preparing to reenter the U.S. in the near term, saw $3 billion.
Amid an increasingly favorable regulatory landscape for crypto, the CFTC has softened its previously restrictive stance on prediction markets, signaling openness to viewing them as innovative frontiers combining information and finance.
Other major platforms are expanding into the prediction market space, including Robinhood, which partnered with Kalshi in August to offer event contracts for National Football League and NCAA College Football.
The National Hockey League also reportedly signed multi-year licensing agreements with Kalshi and Polymarket, which marked the first time a major U.S. sports league partnered with prediction markets.
Meanwhile, Gemini's stock traded down 8.43% to close Tuesday at $16.29, according to The Block's price data. This is 55.97% lower than the company's opening price of $37 on the Nasdaq after its IPO. Gemini is set to release its first earnings report as a public company on Nov. 10.
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