Bitcoin rebounds near $110,000 as US–China accord counters ETF outflows, hawkish Fed: analysts
Quick Take
- Bitcoin has recovered to around $110,000 after a thaw in U.S.–China relations boosted global risk sentiment, even as spot crypto ETFs saw continued outflows.
- Analysts say the Trump–Xi tariff detente has filled a macro vacuum left by the U.S. data blackout, lifting confidence even as Fed Chair Jerome Powell cooled expectations for a December cut.
Bitcoin rebounded to $110,000 after a whipsaw Federal Open Market Committee session and a de-escalation between Washington and Beijing improved global risk sentiment, even as U.S. spot crypto ETFs have logged another heavy day of outflows.
According to The Block’s price page, BTC traded between $109,600 and $110,200 early Friday, recovering from a previous dip near $107,000 after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said a December rate cut “is not a foregone conclusion.”
Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com, pointed out that traders have shifted their attention from Fed's "hawkish cut" to the U.S.–China trade deal.
Meanwhile, Ether hovered around $3,900, BNB close to $1,100, and SOL below $190, while the total crypto market value has remained near $3.76 trillion.
Trade talks substitute macro
Analysts say diplomacy has stepped into the macro vacuum left by a U.S. data blackout. Following their meeting in South Korea, President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping announced tariff reductions and commitments on several issues.
On the White House’s China talks, Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, pointed to a “confidence boost” from agreements spanning trade, energy, and fentanyl enforcement. He added that the U.S. GDP report, delayed to December amid the shutdown, has muddied near-term macro reads.
According to multiple analyst notes seen by The Block, market experts share the view that government gridlock further complicates macro visibility by holding up other key data releases.
U.S. spot ETF flows have reflected this caution. On Thursday, U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded about $488 million in net outflows, with no individual fund seeing net inflows. Similarly, spot ether ETFs posted roughly $184 million in outflows. Meanwhile, spot Solana ETFs bucked the trend with $37.33 million in net inflows, the third straight day of gains led by Bitwise’s BSOL.
With the monthly close at hand, October 2025 is tracking as one of bitcoin’s weakest Octobers in more than a decade after an early-month ATH faded into over $10 billion in liquidations, CoinGlass data shows.
Despite the surprise downturn in what’s usually a bullish month for BTC, Paul Howard, senior director at Wincent, expressed optimism regarding bitcoin’s long-term outlook.
“BTC prices should hold in the $110,000-$120,000 range post the Fed rate cut,” Howard said, though “concerns of a further cut potentially not happening have moved prices slightly lower,” he noted.
“My sense is this is convenient for short-term accumulation and we will see macro improvements heading into November, which will drive risk assets like BTC higher before some end-of-year consolidation.”
Monthly BTC returns | Image: CoinGlass
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