Kalshi surges past Polymarket in volume, grabs global dominance

Prediction platform Kalshi is having one of its best months in nearly a year.

The company said Thursday it currently "accounts for 62.2% of global prediction market volume, a stark contrast from one year ago, when Kalshi accounted for just 3.1% of global volume." Kalshi also emphasized it is limited to U.S. consumers.

Kalshi has, so far this month, recorded $1.3 billion in monthly trading volume, significantly more than its rival Polymarket's $773 million, according to The Block Data Dashboard.

The last time Kalshi's monthly trading volume surpassed $1 billion was in November 2024, during the U.S. elections. Although the month has not concluded and Polymarket could eventually overtake its rival, Kalshi's performance in recent months suggests the platform is gaining in popularity.

“It's remarkable to see how fast Kalshi is growing,” Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said in a statement.

While trading volumes across both Polymarket and Kalshi cooled after last year's election season, both platforms appear poised to grow, according to analysts and reports of possibly surging valuations. Polymarket is eyeing an important U.S. market relaunch after agreeing in 2022 to take preventative steps to block users there.

Polymarket and Kalshi battle it out

For now, it appears the Polymarket and Kalshi are the premiere prediction platforms where users can wager on the outcomes of specific events. But their business profiles currently differ.

Polymarket is a decentralized, crypto-native platform, that has recently gained traction in trying to return to the U.S. market by acquiring the derivatives exchange QCEX. Kalshi is already a regulated U.S. exchange that has been, of late, making inroads to become more aligned with crypto, including popular chains like Solana and Base. 

Bernstein analysts say prediction platforms are becoming a new interface for information, where crypto, AI, and news all converge. Coinbase and Robinhood both appear eager to carve out some market share as the platforms seek to woo users interested in wagering on the outcomes of sporting events across popular professional leagues like the NFL. Sports betting in the U.S. is already a gigantic business worth billions of dollars a year.

But users are also wagering on everything from corporate quarterly earnings reports and prominent fiscal decisions to crypto prices. Bernstein noted that more than $200 million on Polymarket and $85 million on Kalshi was traded on the Fed’s 25 bps rate cut decision.

Investors may be looking to secure a stake in these two companies, according to reports from last week. Polymarket is considering raising additional capital at a valuation between $9–$10 billion. Kalshi, meanwhile, is said to be "close to raising money at a $5 billion valuation," a report said.