Polymarket brings prediction markets to company earnings after US clearance

Decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket has launched a new section for forecasting the earnings of publicly traded companies, following its recent regulatory clearance to operate in the U.S.

In a statement on Monday, Polymarket said it has partnered with Stocktwits, a social platform for traders, to launch earnings prediction markets for widely followed public companies.

The pair stated that the collaboration combines Polymarket's prediction markets with Stocktwits' trading community, providing users with access to real-time, crowd-priced probabilities alongside discussions on earnings, sentiment, and market trends. 

On Polymarket, users have begun wagering on the earnings forecasts of several companies, including FedEx and crypto exchange Bullish. 

In the market titled "Will Bullish (BLSH) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?" bettors are currently assigning Bullish around 56% odds that the company might exceed analyst expectations for earnings per share. Bullish is expected to release its second-quarter earnings on Sept. 17.

Among all prediction markets on Polymarket, the "Fed decision in September?" market has drawn the most activity, with $139 million in volume. Bettors currently assign a 91% probability that the Federal Reserve would cut rates by 25 basis points.

"Prediction markets transform uncertainty into clarity by turning big questions—like earnings — into simple, tradable outcomes with transparent pricing," Matthew Modabber, chief marketing officer of Polymarket, said in the Monday statement.

Howard Lindzon, founder and CEO of Stocktwits, said that Polymarket has "created an entirely new way to understand news and expectations," and that Stocktwits is "the place where millions of investors already gather to share ideas and sentiment."

Polymarket has signaled active expansion after CEO Shane Coplan said earlier this month that the platform received clearance from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to go live in the U.S.

Polymarket is also considering raising new funding at a valuation between $9 billion and $10 billion, according to reports from The Information and Business Insider last week.