Benchmark says Semler Scientific could close valuation gap with Bitcoin treasury peers, sees 150% upside in SMLR

It's been just over a year since Semler Scientific followed Strategy's lead to build out a corporate bitcoin treasury, which helped propel the stock from $22 a share to a high of $81 in December. Thanks in part to its new three-year plan, analysts at Benchmark say SMLR shares have more room to run.

Benchmark analysts led by Mark Palmer initiated coverage on Semler Scientific's stock with a "buy" rating and a $101 price target — or nearly 150% upside from the stock's current price level.

"We believe SMLR could close the gap between its relatively low mNAV and the higher mNAVs of other bitcoin treasury companies through a combination of execution, transparency, and investor engagement," Palmer wrote Tuesday in a note to clients. Last month, Semler Scientific announced the hiring of Joe Burnett as its new director of Bitcoin strategy, along with a three-year plan to own 105,000 bitcoin.

Using proceeds from equity and debt financings, as well as cash flows from operations, the Nasdaq-listed healthcare tech company plans to hold 10,000 BTC by the end of 2025, 42,000 BTC by year-end 2026, and 105,000 BTC by year-end 2027. In valuing SMLR shares, Benchmark has assumed bitcoin’s price will rise to $225,000 by the end of 2026.

Semler Scientific's multiple of net asset value (mNAV) of 1.25 trails those of Metaplanet and Blockchain Group at 4.29 and 6.45, respectively, according to Benchmark. Semler first announced its bitcoin treasury strategy in May 2024 and has achieved an approximately 294% BTC Yield (based on its total bitcoin holdings divided by the assumed diluted shares outstanding) through July 2.

Semler's healthcare business is a modest contributor to Benchmark's sum-of-the-parts valuation of its stock. Recent challenges include the overhang from a U.S. Department of Justice investigation, and Medicare reimbursement uncertainties may have contributed to the company’s mNAV discount.

"We believe the resolution of SMLR’s DOJ matter and its launch of CardioVanta, a SaaS-focused subsidiary aimed at expanding offerings in heart failure detection, could help to refocus its story and bolster its valuation," Palmer wrote in the note.

Semler shares traded higher by 8.5% to $42.28 at publication time, according to The Block's SMLR price data.

Semler Scientific was the second U.S. public company to adopt "the Bitcoin Standard," and there are now well over 200 firms that have adopted a bitcoin treasury strategy in some form, The Block previously reported.