Ark Invest raises 2030 bull-case bitcoin price projection to $2.4 million on 'aggressive' modeling

Cathie Wood's Ark Invest has raised its bull-case bitcoin price projection to $2.4 million by 2030, up from a previous estimate of $1.5 million, based on a new specialized methodology.

In a Thursday report, David Puell, an analyst at Ark Invest, wrote that the initial 2030 bull-case price target for bitcoin was around $1.5 million. However, using the firm’s latest experimental model, which factors in bitcoin’s liquid supply by discounting lost or long-held coins, Ark has now projected a bull-case price of $2.4 million for 2030.

The report noted that the bull-case price projection was based on a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 72% between the end of 2024 and the end of 2030. The price estimates were also modeled using expected total addressable markets and penetration rates.

Meanwhile, using the new experimental methodology, which Puell described as more "aggressive" than Ark's official model, the report projected a price estimate of $1.2 million in the base case (at a 53% CAGR) and $500,000 in the bear case (at a 32% CAGR).

Puell also pointed out that bitcoin's use as digital gold contributes most to the report's bear and base cases, while "institutional investment contributes the most to our bull case."

The use of bitcoin in emerging markets is another key factor. "[Bitcoin's] low barriers to entry provide individuals with internet connections in emerging markets access to an investment alternative that may provide capital appreciation over time, as opposed to defensive allocations like the U.S. dollar, to preserve purchasing power and avoid the devaluations of their own national currencies," the analyst said.

"[We] also believe that this more experimental exercise highlights that bitcoin's scarcity and lost supply are not reflected in most valuation models today," Puell added.