Harris overtakes Trump in latest Polymarket odds for US presidential election
Quick Take
- The odds of Kamala Harris winning the U.S. presidential election rose to 50%, while Donald Trump’s chances of winning stood at 49% on Polymarket.
- The two candidates’ election odds were tied following Tuesday night’s debate before Trump took the lead on Wednesday.
On Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform, the odds of U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris winning the upcoming presidential election have surpassed those of Donald Trump.
Harris’ odds of winning the November election rose to 50% on Polymarket today, while Trump’s chances of being elected stood at 49%. This followed Harris' rise to 49%, briefly tying with Trump after the debate on Tuesday night, before Trump later regained the lead, 50% to 49%, later on Wednesday.
The presidential debate between the two candidates turned into a “sell-the-news” event, encouraging risk-off sentiment based on a consensus that Trump's performance against Harris was underwhelming.
On PredictIt, the price for a Harris victory stood at 56 cents today, compared to 53 cents on Monday, while Trump’s odds fell to 47 cents.
While neither candidate mentioned crypto during the debate, cryptocurrency has become a significant part of the election discussions over the past few months. Harris’ team has started reaching out to the crypto industry, and her pro-crypto rival Trump has repeatedly reiterated his support for Bitcoin.
The Polymarket odds align with data from certain U.S. election polls on the debate's performance. Some early polls showed that Harris won the presidential debate. A YouGov survey of over 2,000 registered voters found that 54% thought Harris won, while 31% favored Trump. In a CNN/SSRS poll, debate watchers said, 63% to 37%, that Harris performed better onstage.
On another Polymarket prediction market, “Who will win the debate according to polls,” Harris’ chances of winning were at 73% around the time of the debate and have since risen to 99%.
The U.S. election results remained the biggest prediction market on the platform, with its volume currently reaching over $892 million.
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